FLOW / 01Route the cause
Diagnostic flow: internal cause or external push?
OBSERVE
Sudden sales decline detected
Establish the baseline before interpretation.
CHECK
Internal conditions changed?
- Pricing
- Stock / fulfillment
- Tracking / reporting
- Site / app availability
- Paid media changes
- Sales coverage
- Seasonality / calendar effects
ROUTE → YES
Internal hypothesis queue
- Pricing friction
- Operational constraint
- Measurement issue
- Channel mix shift
- Calendar / seasonality effect
ROUTE → NO / INSUFFICIENT
External signal scan
Competitor push visible across signals?
HYPOTHESIZE → YES
[Competitor] campaign hypothesis queue
- Message displacement
- Channel saturation
- Audience poaching
- Offer pressure
- Timing collision
HYPOTHESIZE → NO
Broaden market hypothesis queue
- Macro demand shift
- Category event
- Partner / channel change
- Search / social attention shift
INTEL / 02Core principle
Core principle: separate OBSERVABLE SIGNALS from HYPOTHESES
OBSERVABLE SIGNALS
What can be directly seen, captured, linked, timestamped, or independently verified.
- Ad creative observed
- Landing page copy captured
- Offer terms recorded
- Search / social visibility noticed
- Customer or sales team mention logged
- Channel placement seen
DO NOT COLLAPSE THESE
HYPOTHESES
A testable explanation for why the signal may relate to [Observed sales decline].
- [Competitor] is shifting the buying criteria
- [Competitor] is targeting the same audience
- [Campaign or promotion] is increasing offer pressure
- Timing overlaps with the decline
- Message repetition may be displacing attention
INTEL / 03Five dimensions
Triangulation framework: five dimensions
Message
Observable signals to capture
- Claims and wording
- Proof points
- Emotional framing
Hypotheses it may support
- Reframing category choice
- Attacking a weakness
Counter-move questions
- What message to test?
- Where to deploy it?
Channel
Observable signals to capture
- Search, paid social, marketplace
- Partner, field, email
- Events, outbound
Hypotheses it may support
- Reach expansion
- Pressure points
Counter-move questions
- Where to respond?
- Where to monitor?
Audience
Observable signals to capture
- Segment, geography
- Account type, intent stage
- Current customer vs prospect
Hypotheses it may support
- Audience poaching
- Audience expansion
Counter-move questions
- Which audience deserves defense?
Offer
Observable signals to capture
- Discount, bundle, trial
- Urgency, guarantee
- Financing, contract lever
Hypotheses it may support
- Price pressure
- Risk reversal
Counter-move questions
- Smallest safe counter-offer to test?
Timing
Observable signals to capture
- Start date, cadence, bursts
- Deadlines, event overlap
- Sales-cycle collision
Hypotheses it may support
- Temporal causality
Counter-move questions
- Respond immediately, delay, or monitor?
CAPTURE / 04Evidence log
Evidence-capture matrix
→ Scroll table horizontally
| Signal observed | Dimension | Source/[Evidence link] | Hypothesis | Confidence (Low/Med/High) | [Owner] | [Due date] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record observed signal | Select dimension | Attach [Evidence link] | Write hypothesis | Low/Med/High | [Owner] | [Due date] |
| Record observed signal | Select dimension | Attach [Evidence link] | Write hypothesis | Low/Med/High | [Owner] | [Due date] |
| Record observed signal | Select dimension | Attach [Evidence link] | Write hypothesis | Low/Med/High | [Owner] | [Due date] |
| Record observed signal | Select dimension | Attach [Evidence link] | Write hypothesis | Low/Med/High | [Owner] | [Due date] |
FIELD / 05Data capture
Investigation worksheets
Primary claim observed
Supporting proof point observed
Emotional frame or urgency cue
What buying criterion might this shift?
What counter-message can be tested?
Channel where signal appeared
Placement or format
Frequency or recurrence observed
Audience access implied by the channel
Monitoring owner and next capture time
Audience segment inferred from signal
Geography, account type, or intent stage
Evidence supporting the audience read
Risk to [Your business]
Defensive or offensive test to consider
SCORE / 06Corroboration rubric
Confidence scoring rubric
LOW
One signal, weak source context, or unverified interpretation. Use only for monitoring and additional capture.
MEDIUM
Two or more signals point in the same direction, with at least one independently captured source. Use for limited tests and focused monitoring.
HIGH
Multiple independent sources corroborate the same dimension pattern, timing aligns with [Observed sales decline], and the hypothesis survives internal-cause checks. Use for prioritized counter-move testing.
Confidence increases through independent corroboration, not repetition of the same source.
SPRINT / 0772-hour cycle
72-hour intelligence sprint
Hour 0–24 — Capture
Hour 24–48 — Triangulate
Hour 48–72 — Decide
DECISION / 08Convert to counter-moves
Action thresholds: convert findings into testable counter-moves
→ Scroll table horizontally
| Confidence level | Evidence condition | Counter-move justified | Guardrail |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | Single or weakly corroborated signal | Continue capture; increase monitoring; prepare response options but do not launch broad changes | Avoid reacting to noise or internal issues not yet ruled out |
| MEDIUM | Independent signals align across at least two dimensions | Run contained tests: message test, limited channel response, targeted sales enablement, offer sensitivity check | Limit blast radius; define success criteria before action |
| HIGH | Multiple independent sources align, timing fits, internal causes have been checked | Prioritize counter-move testing: defensive messaging, focused channel deployment, audience-specific response, controlled offer adjustment | Keep the move testable; monitor for second-order effects |